A Future challenge: World War for Water

Full Title

A Future challenge: World War for Water

Event

IWA World Water Congress 2010

Authors and Affiliations

 M. Ghaheri, S. Ghaheri

mghaheri2001@yahoo.com,

Zagros Petrochemical Company (ZPC),

P. O. Box 14515-464 Tehran, Iran

ghaheri@yahoo.com,

Zolal-e-Iran Co.,

P. O. Box 14515-464 Tehran, Iran

Abstract

A Future challenge: World War for Water

Water is the basic resource for any sustainable social and economical development in arid and semi-arid regions of the world. However, it is increasingly becoming a serious crisis in Western Asia, the Middle East and, in some cases, North Africa. Only 0.5% of the world’s renewable and/or fresh water resources are in Middle Eastern and North African countries which have 7% of the world total population. The result of this is that the average available water in this region is 1/14 (one fourteenth) of the world average available fresh water. Rapid population growth and social development (due to industrial development, agricultural activities expansion and life level promotion) has led to an increase in demand for water. As a result water resources have now become the dividing line between life and death and war & peace. The next century will no doubt be the century of a water crisis.

In many of these countries the water crisis is caused by two main reasons: the first one is water-shortage or even water scarcity; the 2^nd (and most important reason) is the wrong water management. It seems that implementing the applied methods for water supply is the most reliable way to go. Finding economical water demineralization methods for sea waters would then be something to explore, particularly for those countries on the edge of "free-fall" as they have less than 300 cubic meters per capita per year of fresh water coming from natural resources.

Iran is one country which will be damaged by water-shortages during in the near decades. The per capita amount of renewable water resources in Iran has decreased from 7.000 cubic meters in 1956 to 2.200 cubic meters in 1996 and 1700 cubic meters per capita in 2008. Taking into consideration the increase in population and social development in conjunction with the very low price of treated water (in Iran 10 cents per one cubic meter), we can foresee the national per capita water resources will continue to drop to less than 1.300 cubic meter by year 2021.  This means that during a 65 years period, the per capita renewable water resources in Iran will be reduced to less than one fifth of its original value in the year 1956. According to the classification proposed by Swedish scientist, Professor Falkenmark, an annual per capita cubic meter of resources in the range between 1.000-1.700 level means that the region experiences water stress, between 500-1.000, there will be water shortage, and the level below 500, causes an absolute water scarcity in the region. Based on this fact and according to the United Nations predictions, Iran would be among those countries experiencing water scarcity by year 2025. (Those other countries such as Saudi Arabia with 150, Kuwait with 45, Emirates with 100 and Libia with the annual 150 cubic meter per capita are among those countries in the Middle East and South Africa that will experience a water crisis by their absolute water scarcity in these years). In Iran, 4.100 million cubic meters of municipal wastewater is produced in a year (from 5.000 million cubic meters of water consumed by households or domestic activities). More than 50% of this amount is discharged, untreated to the ground resources through deep and semi-deep wells, causing pollution of ground resources around the cities. The agricultural sector consumes 91.000 million cubic meters of fresh water annually. As for industrial activities, 1.500 million cubic meters is used per year. Despite consuming 93% of the country's water consumption, the agricultural sector of Iran accounted for less than 30% of the gross domestic product (GDP), and 22% of the country's employment (laboring potential). The domestic and industrial sector in Iran, consuming 7.5% of the supplied water, accounted for 47% and 31% share of employment, and about 70% of GDP.

Considering these regional conditions, our future will probably be more reliant on desalination plants, long distance water transfer and also the recycling & reusing of unconventional water resources, especially in agriculture.

One of our former prime ministers prayed 60 years a go: "May God change our oil resources to the fresh water ones". The next World War is not so far to be imagined as Water World War.

References

Biswas,A. K. (1994) International water of the Middle East, Oxford University Press Bombay.

JAMAB Consulting eng.(2000), The summary of  synthesis report on the comprehensive national water plan.

Goln, J. C. and Gordon, T. C. (2000) Future situation issues and opportunities, Center for energy studies UNESCO

Manouchehri, G. R. (2000)  Confronting water crisis, the main challenge of urban water, policies and solutions, National Water and Wastewater Eng. Company Islamic Rep. of Iran

Lazarova, V. (2009) Specialist group on water reuse, letter of interest of V. Lazarova, IWA Publication

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